Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.600754 1.675734 1.754080 1.842369 1.939487 2.043516 2.163989
2026-01-18 1.515266 1.615414 1.723847 1.850923 1.997028 2.161355 2.362524
2026-01-25 1.427956 1.541034 1.666464 1.817552 1.996925 2.206222 2.473905
2026-02-01 1.371300 1.495056 1.635162 1.807979 2.019072 2.273808 2.613445
2026-02-08 1.322137 1.453518 1.604784 1.795129 2.033399 2.329622 2.739930
2026-02-15 1.278589 1.415502 1.575398 1.780086 2.041876 2.376163 2.855876
2026-02-22 1.250531 1.393972 1.563866 1.785135 2.074418 2.454310 3.020735
2026-03-01 1.205478 1.349674 1.522021 1.749023 2.050160 2.453188 3.070329
2026-03-08 1.170046 1.315610 1.491140 1.724912 2.039571 2.468871 3.144660
2026-03-15 1.141809 1.289249 1.468599 1.710107 2.039976 2.498975 3.242769
2026-03-22 1.132903 1.286387 1.475294 1.733521 2.093435 2.608333 3.478601
2026-03-29 1.128706 1.289037 1.488788 1.766174 2.161240 2.743857 3.776887
2026-04-05 1.108187 1.270783 1.475117 1.762105 2.177362 2.803829 3.956624
2026-04-12 1.091780 1.257178 1.466879 1.764873 2.203245 2.880804 4.179681
2026-04-19 1.062355 1.225865 1.434104 1.731797 2.173482 2.864893 4.219850
2026-04-26 1.043416 1.207649 1.418164 1.721735 2.177809 2.905326 4.379516
2026-05-03 1.024655 1.189126 1.401167 1.709336 2.177608 2.937686 4.527458
2026-05-10 1.006265 1.170598 1.383564 1.695272 2.173858 2.963278 4.664874
2026-05-17 0.995573 1.161897 1.378950 1.699689 2.199166 3.041651 4.937539
2026-05-24 0.972068 1.135634 1.349565 1.666665 2.162753 3.005688 4.930298
2026-05-31 0.953359 1.115412 1.328041 1.644603 2.143136 2.999285 4.996198
2026-06-07 0.938374 1.099868 1.312599 1.631050 2.136716 3.016840 5.126779
2026-06-14 0.935969 1.101113 1.320414 1.652428 2.188797 3.149325 5.595431